Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accrue 17.1 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- Raheem Mostert has earned 58.8% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 36.2% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 57.0 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has had the 10th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 4.36 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
