Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-113/-117).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-113) after it opened @ 29.5 (-120).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.29 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to total 5.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has put up significantly more air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram’s 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.6.

Cons

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
Evan Engram has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.77 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
The New York Giants pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards