Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Dak Prescott from EV Insight

Dak PrescottPassing Yards

Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-110) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Dak Prescott has been among the best QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 265.0 yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
Dak Prescott has been among the most accurate passers in the league since the start of last season with an impressive 67.3% Completion%, grading out in the 86th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Detroit Lions defense this year (73.9%).

Cons

The Cowboys are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys have been the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on just 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
301
Passing Yards