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Chris Meaney
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Cowboys vs. Lions
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-110) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Dak Prescott has been among the best QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 265.0 yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
- Dak Prescott has been among the most accurate passers in the league since the start of last season with an impressive 67.3% Completion%, grading out in the 86th percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Detroit Lions defense this year (73.9%).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The Cowboys have been the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
- The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on just 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
301
Passing Yards
301
Passing Yards
