Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Leonard Fournette from EV Insight

Leonard FournetteRushing Yards

Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to garner 18.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Leonard Fournette has been much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this season (79.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (66.0%).
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (137 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
Leonard Fournette’s running effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching a mere 3.73 yards-per-carry vs a 5.01 rate last season.
Leonard Fournette has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.36 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 5th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards