Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+106/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-145) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to garner 13.4 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-most yards in the NFL (139 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (61.9% in games he has played).
Brian Robinson’s rushing efficiency (3.06 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (25th percentile among RBs).

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards