Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.91 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 19.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has run for substantially more yards per game (97.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).

Cons

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 89 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards