Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to garner 18.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Leonard Fournette has been much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this season (79.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (66.0%).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (137 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
- Leonard Fournette’s running effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching a mere 3.73 yards-per-carry vs a 5.01 rate last season.
- Leonard Fournette has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.36 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 5th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards
80
Rushing Yards
