Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Vikings vs. 49ers
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-105) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- In this week’s contest, Alexander Mattison is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 12.6 carries.
- Alexander Mattison has been a much bigger part of his team’s running game this season (73.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (17.8%).
- Alexander Mattison’s 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season conveys a a meaningful progression in his rushing prowess over last season’s 16.0 figure.
Cons
- This game’s line suggests a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to run on 31.0% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).
- The opposing side have run for the 4th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 75.0 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
