Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+112/-148).
Pros
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the most among all teams this week.
- The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The predictive model expects Trevor Lawrence to throw 38.4 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most out of all QBs.
Cons
- This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a measly 207.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-best in the league.
- This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered a mere 61.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
- The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards
262
Passing Yards
