Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+112/-148).

Pros

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the most among all teams this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Trevor Lawrence to throw 38.4 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most out of all QBs.

Cons

This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a measly 207.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-best in the league.
This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered a mere 61.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards