NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Eagles vs. Dolphins
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 84.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- The most plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 67.2 per game on average).
- The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to garner 9.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown’s 105.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year illustrates a a meaningful gain in his receiving prowess over last year’s 80.0 figure.
- This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded a monstrous 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
- The Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.01 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the league.
- As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami’s group of safeties has been great this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
