Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 84.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
The most plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 67.2 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to garner 9.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown’s 105.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year illustrates a a meaningful gain in his receiving prowess over last year’s 80.0 figure.
This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded a monstrous 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
The Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.01 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami’s group of safeties has been great this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards