Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-135) after it opened @ 24.5 (-119).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The model projects Zach Ertz to notch 5.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Seahawks pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 9.73 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.

Cons

The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.7% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Zach Ertz’s 74.4% Route% this season marks a an impressive drop-off in his passing offense workload over last season’s 88.7% rate.
Zach Ertz has accumulated a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards