NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-135) after it opened @ 24.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Cardinals are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- The model projects Zach Ertz to notch 5.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The Seahawks pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 9.73 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
Cons
- The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.7% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Zach Ertz’s 74.4% Route% this season marks a an impressive drop-off in his passing offense workload over last season’s 88.7% rate.
- Zach Ertz has accumulated a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
