Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kendrick Bourne from EV Insight

Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards

Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-114).

Pros

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The model projects Kendrick Bourne to notch 7.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Kendrick Bourne has notched many more air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Kendrick Bourne has been more heavily utilized in his offense’s passing game.

Cons

With a 59.1% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-least pass-centric team in football has been the Patriots.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 31.7 per game) this year.
The Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Kendrick Bourne’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 74.8% to 64.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards