Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 10.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 31.4% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has totaled a lot more receiving yards per game (103.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 57.0 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards