Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-110) after it opened @ 84.5 (-110).
Pros
- Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (67.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills.
- The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to garner 10.4 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Stefon Diggs has been a more integral piece of his offense’s passing game this year (33.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (28.0%).
- Stefon Diggs has accumulated many more air yards this season (120.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) versus wideouts this year (68.7%).
Cons
- This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.75 seconds per snap.
- Stefon Diggs’s skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, notching just 2.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.11 mark last year.
- This year, the strong New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a measly 4.0 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
