Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-110) after it opened @ 84.5 (-110).

Pros

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (67.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills.
The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to garner 10.4 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has been a more integral piece of his offense’s passing game this year (33.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (28.0%).
Stefon Diggs has accumulated many more air yards this season (120.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) versus wideouts this year (68.7%).

Cons

This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.75 seconds per snap.
Stefon Diggs’s skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, notching just 2.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.11 mark last year.
This year, the strong New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a measly 4.0 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards