NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Eagles vs. Dolphins
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- The most plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 67.2 per game on average).
- Dallas Goedert has run a route on 88.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
- The predictive model expects Dallas Goedert to accrue 6.0 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a whopping 51.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 10th-worst in football.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
- Dallas Goedert’s 40.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a an impressive reduction in his receiving prowess over last year’s 58.0 figure.
- Dallas Goedert’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 80.2% to 73.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
