Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Deshaun Watson from EV Insight

Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards

Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 228.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-110).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a massive 66.0 per game on average).
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Browns grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (260.0 per game) versus the Colts defense this year.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Indianapolis’s LB corps has been awful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a running game script.
The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns as the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Deshaun Watson is expected by the predictive model to total the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.8.
The Colts defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.92 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
225
Passing Yards