Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Jaguars vs. Giants
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-117/-112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-117) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.29 seconds per play.
- Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this season (95.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.8%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accumulate 7.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- Christian Kirk has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 60.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
