Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for CeeDee Lamb from EV Insight

CeeDee LambReceiving Yards

Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (-130) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accrue 9.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
CeeDee Lamb has been a more integral piece of his team’s passing attack this year (33.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (20.3%).
The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.5%) to wideouts this year (71.5%).

Cons

The Cowboys are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys have been the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
CeeDee Lamb’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 57.8%.
CeeDee Lamb’s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 7.37 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 figure last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards