Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Cowboys vs. Lions
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (-130) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accrue 9.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
- CeeDee Lamb has been a more integral piece of his team’s passing attack this year (33.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (20.3%).
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.5%) to wideouts this year (71.5%).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The Cowboys have been the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
- CeeDee Lamb’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 57.8%.
- CeeDee Lamb’s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 7.37 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 figure last season.
- The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards
94
Receiving Yards
