Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The FTN team uses Adam Pfeifer’s Week 7 fantasy football game-by-game breakdown to identify some of the key player props to bet on in this week’s Cardinals/Saints game.
New Orleans (2-4) will look to earn its first second road win on Thursday Night Football at Arizona (2-4). The Cardinals are winless (0-3) at State Farm Stadium but will welcome back All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins from suspension for this game.
Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Rondale Moore remained heavily involved last week, hauling in 6-of-10 targets for 49 yards. He once again primarily played out of the slot, lining up inside 85% of the time, sporting an aDOT of just 3.3 yards. Going forward, his role likely won’t change, especially with Hollywood set to miss some time. In this horizontal raid offense, Moore has been targeted seven times off screens since making his season debut in Week 4, the second most in football, as Arizona continues to scheme touches for Moore. The Cardinals continue to have to throw the football all over the yard (Murray is averaging a career-high 42 pass attempts per game).
Pick: Rondale Moore Over 47.5 Receiving Yards
The Cardinals have limited offensive weapons for this matchup with New Orleans. Rondale Moore is the most experienced receiver this season, with Hopkins returning off suspension and Robby Anderson just joining the team this week. Moore hit a season-high 97% snap share last week, with 40 routes run and 10 targets. I project him to hit 50 yards against a struggling Saints secondary.
Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona Cardinals
With both James Conner and Darrel Williams sidelined last week, Eno Benjamin got the start at running back and saw an elite workload. Benjamin logged an impressive 87% of the offensive snaps Sunday, also running a route on 87% of Arizona’s dropbacks. He handled 18-of-21 running back touches, though he finished the day with just 65 scoreless yards. The Saints certainly aren’t the easiest run defense to face but they have taken a bit of a step back in 2022, allowing two 100-yard rushing performances, something they only did three times from 2019 to 2021.
Pick: Eno Benjamin Under 57.5 Rushing Yards
If Eno Benjamin averaged just 2.5 yards per carry with 87% of the offensive snaps against Seattle, why would his production improve against New Orleans? Despite taking a step back, the Saints run defense should still cause problems for Benjamin and a Cardinals rushing attack that ranks just 20th in offensive DVOA. The Cardinals need a win, and I expect more rushing from Kyler Murray and increased snaps for Keaontay Ingram. I’m fading Benjamin even at home.
Andy Dalton, QB, New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston (back) was active last week, but Andy Dalton will start his fourth straight game for New Orleans. The Saints will be without two of their top three wideouts, and Taysom Hill is going to continue playing a handful of snaps at quarterback. I worry about the lack of pass-catchers in New Orleans, as well as the presence of Hill, who attempted four passes last week and carried the ball five times.
Pick: Andy Dalton Under 213 Passing Yards
There are many outs for this passing yardage prop. While Andy Dalton is starting, he could be replaced by Winston at any time. Dalton is notoriously bad in primetime games, and the lack of effective pass catchers also hurts his opportunities. Taysom Hill is also a factor, as is the trend of lower-scoring games primetime this season.
