Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 232.5 (+100) after it opened @ 230.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a giant 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most yards in the NFL (279.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.

Cons

Davis Mills has been among the least effective QBs in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.20 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Houston Texans have incorporated motion in their offense on 30.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards