Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Brian HoyerPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bears vs. Raiders
Right now, Brian Hoyer’s passing yards prop is set at 223.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 223.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Raiders will be forced to use backup QB Brian Hoyer in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
- The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (288.0 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
- The Bears pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.64 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the league.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.0 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 54.2 per game on average).
- The leading projections forecast Brian Hoyer to attempt 30.1 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
206
Passing Yards
206
Passing Yards
