Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Gardner Minshew from EV Insight

Gardner MinshewPassing Yards

Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-113) after it opened @ 195.5 (-115).

Pros

This week’s line implies a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
The Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Gardner Minshew’s 66.8% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a a meaningful growth in his throwing precision over last year’s 58.0% mark.

Cons

With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL has been the Indianapolis Colts.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the fewest yards in the NFL (just 134.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Browns defense this year.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Cleveland Browns defense has allowed a puny 65.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
The Cleveland Browns safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
226
Passing Yards