Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Colts vs. Browns
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-113) after it opened @ 195.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week’s line implies a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
- The Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Gardner Minshew’s 66.8% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a a meaningful growth in his throwing precision over last year’s 58.0% mark.
Cons
- With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL has been the Indianapolis Colts.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the fewest yards in the NFL (just 134.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Browns defense this year.
- Since the start of last season, the formidable Cleveland Browns defense has allowed a puny 65.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
- The Cleveland Browns safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
226
Passing Yards
226
Passing Yards
