Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (+108) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 16.0 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Steelers are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his offense’s running game this season (67.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (78.8%).
- Najee Harris has run for substantially fewer yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
- Najee Harris’s running effectiveness (3.06 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (2nd percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
