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Chris Meaney
Week 7 of the college football season is here.
Below, Monotone will give out his favorite CFB play of the week. This time, it’s coming from the Pac-12, which has surprisingly been one of the most competitive conferences in college football this year.
USC +3.5
-107, PointsBet
Utah was a team I loved betting on last season, and it has now turned into a team I enjoy betting against. While I understand this is still a strong team, the Utes’ defense hasn’t been as impressive against top tier teams (despite how good the numbers look on paper), and I really think USC puts them to the test this week. Cam Rising has been very good this season and will be someone I take a close look at in the prop market, but I’m not sure if the Utah offense can play in a shootout. Utah lost last week because of essential turnovers, and that falls exactly into the strength of the USC defense. I think this will be an incredibly close game, but I made this game a pick ’em even with Utah’s home field advantage, so I’ll definitely take the points here.
When looking at who Utah has lost to this season, there is a bit of a common theme. Both Florida and UCLA possess explosive offenses with dual threat quarterbacks that have the ability to do damage on the ground in addition to through the air. When looking at Caleb Williams, he has better passing ability then both Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Anthony Richardson, but can also do damage on the ground, especially in a game that I think will be neck and neck.
USC has an absolutely explosive offense, rating as the 17th-highest scoring team in the nation (averaging 42.2 PPG) and is holding opponents to an average of just 19.6 points per game. Additionally, another interesting stat is 18% of their plays have been rushes of 12-plus yards or passes of 15-plus. They can sustain successful drives, but also gain nice chunk plays when needed. Utah’s strength lies in their secondary, this is a real chance for Travis Dye and Caleb Williams to make their input on the ground.
They have also upgraded a lot on the defensive side of the ball, something that people were very skeptical of at the beginning of the season. USC currently leads the nation in sacks, with 24, with Tuli Tuipulotu leading the nation in individual sacks as well. Beyond that USC has also improved to 27th in scoring defense, 47th in total defense, and T-2nd in forced turnovers. These are two very strong teams that can go blow-to-blow with the best of the best. That said, I trust USC to extend their playoff push on Saturday, and don’t think they should be underdogs here.
