Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Leonard Fournette from EV Insight

Leonard FournetteRushing Yards

Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a giant 9.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 17.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Leonard Fournette has generated 56.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (76th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the league (131 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (67.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (79.3% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Leonard Fournette’s running effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating just 3.81 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.01 mark last season.
Leonard Fournette has been among the worst RBs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.47 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 7th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards