Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a giant 9.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 17.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Leonard Fournette has generated 56.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (76th percentile).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the league (131 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (67.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (79.3% in games he has played).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
- Leonard Fournette’s running effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating just 3.81 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.01 mark last season.
- Leonard Fournette has been among the worst RBs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.47 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 7th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
