Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 17.3 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 61.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (80th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-most yards in football (130 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (70.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.0% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards