Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-115) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).

Pros

The Giants have been the 7th-most run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 43.0% run rate.
The New York Giants have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 17.5 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has been much more involved in his offense’s running game this season (72.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (58.1%).
Saquon Barkley has run for quite a few more yards per game (99.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).

Cons

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards