2025 NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers Series Preview and Analysis
Alex Christenson
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Deon JacksonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Deon Jackson’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to accrue 14.5 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to be a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this week (51.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.8% in games he has played).
- The Indianapolis Colts have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 3.82 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 5th-best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards