Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Commanders
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 64.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to total 13.8 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in football (179 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.
- The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 9th-least run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.3% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be a much smaller part of his offense’s running game this week (51.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (64.3% in games he has played).
- The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
