MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 6 Thursday Slate
Hopefully we get a much more entertaining game this Thursday than the disaster we all sat through last week on Amazon Prime. Nyheim Hines was knocked out on the first series, so our same game parlay was dead from the start.
This week, we get a matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears. The bar is set pretty low after last week, but it still isn’t going to be easy for these two teams to surpass it. Washington is just 1-4 on the season. Chicago somehow has a better record at 2-3. This game has the lowest total of the week at just 38, at least 3 points below the total of any other game. Unlike the 52-point total we saw Monday night, this game does not set up for a lot of anytime touchdown scorer bets. Building a same game parlay in this type of game environment is going to be a little tougher. Here is what I came up with for a same game parlay on Thursday Night Football.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay
Curtis Samuel 5+ Receptions
Terry McLaurin Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
Brian Robinson Anytime TD
I am going heavy on the Washington side of the football. The Bears offense is abysmal, so I worry they will struggle to get first downs and move the chains. If so, that limits the number of plays they will run. Limited plays means we would need to rely on big chunk plays from guys like Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney and David Montgomery for them to hit their totals. All are capable, so I don’t want to bet unders, but all of them are hampered by the playcalling and the league worst passing attack.
For the Commanders, we now have enough data to see the clearly defined roles each player has. Clearly defined roles make things more predictable and that makes them easier to place a wager on. Curtis Samuel is the possession receiver. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson have the higher average depth of target, meaning they are seeing deeper shots down the field. Samuel gets the underneath stuff and at a higher volume based on his targets this year. Higher volume of shorter passes means the market we want to play Samuel in is his receptions. He has caught 32 of 45 balls thrown his way in 2022. That’s an average of 6.4 receptions on 9 targets per game. He has 6 or more catches in every game but one. That was against the stingy Cowboys defense and even in that game he came away with 4 catches. He does not rack up yardage, but he is going to be peppered with targets against a team with shaky coverage and a lacking pass rush.
Terry McLaurin likely sails by this number, but I took the lower number as a safe option. McLaurin is seeing the deep shots down the field. His targets and catches are down from last season, but he’s had a 30-yard catch in all but one game this season. The problem with McLaurin is that you cannot expect him to grab 5 or 6 balls a game right now. He’s more likely to get two catches for 50-plus yards than he is to get 6-7 and come in under the 45 we need to cash. I like sticking with the yardage here, because McLaurin only really needs 2-3 catches with the way they are using him on deep shots to pay off this number. He has at least 58 yards receiving in 4 of 5 games this season, which is why I was happy to pay a little juice on a number as low as 44.5.
Brian Robinson entered the mix last week and basically sucked up all the work on the ground. Gibson saw just three carries, although he did steal some passing-down work from J.D. McKissic too. Jonathan Williams and McKissic saw zero carries, which means Robinson saw 75% of the backfield carries for the Commanders in his first game back. They ran the ball a season-low 12 times in that game. Gibson himself had at least 12 carries every game prior to Robinson’s debut, so I also expect more ground work in this game. Unlike the Titans, the Bears are not good at stopping the run, which means Robinson should be more heavily involved today. Robinson is the bruising short yardage type runner this team has not had, so you can expect to see him take the goal line duties on top of having chances to score from further out on early downs as the main runner. The fact that neither Williams, nor McKissic saw a carry last game also bodes well for Robinson’s chance to continue to take on more ground responsibilities going forward. With Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas both sitting out practice Tuesday, we could again see a consolidated group of offensive weapons the Commanders choose to employ. That makes them a great team to target as the funnel of potential playmakers dwindles.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
