Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-115/-119).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-119) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.6% pass rate.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 64.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accrue 7.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a more important option in his team’s air attack this week (22.6% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.2% in games he has played).
- Terry McLaurin has been among the best WRs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 62.0 yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
- Terry McLaurin has put up far fewer air yards this season (89.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
- The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) versus WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
