Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-105) after it opened @ 36.5 (-120).

Pros

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to earn 6.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has put up significantly more air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
Kyle Pitts’s 51.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 99th percentile for tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
Kyle Pitts has accumulated quite a few less receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).
Kyle Pitts’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 44.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards