MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Gerald Everett to notch 5.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Gerald Everett has totaled far more air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (22.0 per game).
- Gerald Everett’s 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 27.5.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 4-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Gerald Everett’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 82.2% to 59.8%.
- The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
