Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 100.0% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to earn 9.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Ja’Marr Chase has accrued significantly more receiving yards per game (77.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Ja’Marr Chase has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (93.0 per game) than he did last year (109.0 per game).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
89
Receiving Yards