Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to earn 5.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
- Evan Engram has totaled significantly more air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
- Evan Engram’s 33.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 28.6.
Cons
- Evan Engram has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.78 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
- Evan Engram has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 16th percentile.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
