Gross Bombs: Week 6 NFL Bets

It has been a wild first month of the 2022 NFL season. We quickly move on to Week 6. As you’ll see across FTN Bets, there is tons of content, as well as our terrific statistical tools available to all subscribers. If you haven’t already joined our Discord, I recommend doing so, as our experts find time throughout the week for open discussions. They also answer any questions you may have. 

“Gross Bombs” will cover a trio of my favorite first-look NFL bets for this week’s slate of games. All three plays will also be located in our Bet Tracker.

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown 

(+105, DraftKings)

Damien Harris is expected to miss “multiple games”, though he was limited in practice today, so it’s anyone’s guess as to whether Harris will actually miss time. The Patriots signed Kevin Harris off their practice squad, which suggests the former may be accurate. Should Harris be out, Rhamondre Stevenson is going to log another massive workload in this Patriots backfield. Stevenson saw 27 touches in Week 5, though he failed to find the end zone. He did, however, post 114 scrimmage yards on 24 touches last season against Cleveland with two touchdowns when Harris was sidelined. Plus money to find the end zone as the clear-cut lead back against a defense which has allowed eight rushing touchdowns this season? Sign me up. 

Zach Ertz OVER 5.5 Receptions 

(+115, DraftKings)

Ah, a weekly favorite. In Arizona’s final game without DeAndre Hopkins, this could very well be the last week we see Zach Ertz with extreme volume in this offense. Ertz continues to post solid rates, including targets on 24% of his routes run, right behind Marquise Brown for the team lead. Ertz saw double-digit targets last week once again, meaning he has now averaged 10 targets per game in eight games in which he has logged 80% or more of Arizona’s offensive snaps. The Seahawks are 31st in DVOA versus the pass and were absolutely roasted by T.J. Hockenson a couple weeks ago. We aren’t getting 4.5 receptions as we have been all season, but I still find value at 5.5 (+115) considering Ertz is seeing 10 targets per game in the aforementioned split, in addition to clearing this line in all eight games. 

Josh Allen OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards 

(-120, BetMGM)

Lastly, how could we not grab a prop from what may be the most anticipated game we’ll see all season? It’s a rematch of the AFC Divisional Round shootout between the two most high-powered offenses in the game. While Josh Allen may get plenty done with his arm, he has found comfort using his legs in this matchup, averaging 64.3 rushing yards per game (playoffs included). The Chiefs had talked all week leading up to their Divisional Round meeting with Buffalo about limiting Allen from running the football, and he ended up rushing for 68 yards on 11 attempts. I expected to see this line around 48.5, so I’ll happily take 42.5, a number in which he has hit in three of five games already this season, missing by the hook in last week’s blowout versus Pittsburgh.