Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
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Eric SaubertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Eric Saubert’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 13.5 (-129) after it opened @ 16.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Eric Saubert has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (3.0 per game).
- Eric Saubert’s 16.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 4.0.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Eric Saubert’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.5% to 56.2%.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
