Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-105) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 8.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 27.8% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has been among the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 55.0 yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.6 plays per game.
Deebo Samuel has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards