Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Marcus Mariota from EV Insight

Marcus MariotaPassing Yards

Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 196.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 196.5 (-137) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).

Pros

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Marcus Mariota has passed for a lot more yards per game (190.0) this season than he did last season (1.0).
Marcus Mariota has been among the most efficient passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.64 yards-per-target while checking in at the 75th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 31.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all QBs.
Marcus Mariota has been among the least accurate passers in football this year with a 56.9% Completion%, grading out in the 9th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards