Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-121/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-121) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential target this year (62.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has compiled far fewer air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
Dawson Knox has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
Dawson Knox’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a mere 6.72 yards-per-target vs a 8.90 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards