Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike WilliamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Mike Williams’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to notch 9.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- Mike Williams has posted many more air yards this year (100.0 per game) than he did last year (91.0 per game).
- Mike Williams’s 61.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 52.7.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 4-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 127.0) to wideouts this year.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (63.8%) versus wideouts this year (63.8%).
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus wideouts this year, giving up 6.75 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
