Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has produced the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 3.72 yards-per-carry.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards
45
Rushing Yards
