NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Darius SlaytonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Giants vs. Ravens
Right now, Darius Slayton’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (+100) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The New York Giants have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 42.6 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Darius Slayton to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing offense this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.9% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Giants have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Darius Slayton has posted far fewer air yards this year (32.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).
- The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Darius Slayton has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing just 50.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 3rd percentile among wide receivers
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
