Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darius Slayton from EV Insight

Darius SlaytonReceiving Yards

Right now, Darius Slayton’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (+100/-122).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (+100) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).

Pros

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The New York Giants have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.6 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Darius Slayton to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing offense this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.9% in games he has played).

Cons

The Giants have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Darius Slayton has posted far fewer air yards this year (32.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Darius Slayton has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing just 50.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 3rd percentile among wide receivers

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards