Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Curtis Samuel from EV Insight

Curtis SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Curtis Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to accumulate 7.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Curtis Samuel has been much more involved in his offense’s passing attack this year (22.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.8%).
Curtis Samuel has been among the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 59.0 yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Curtis Samuel has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a lowly 6.87 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 20th percentile among wide receivers
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) versus WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards