Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Curtis SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Commanders
Right now, Curtis Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 64.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to accumulate 7.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
- Curtis Samuel has been much more involved in his offense’s passing attack this year (22.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.8%).
- Curtis Samuel has been among the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 59.0 yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
- The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Curtis Samuel has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a lowly 6.87 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 20th percentile among wide receivers
- The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) versus WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
