Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-110) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for substantially more yards per game (251.0) this year than he did last year (213.0).
Trevor Lawrence’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 58.9% to 62.7%.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
226
Passing Yards