Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-110) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence has thrown for substantially more yards per game (251.0) this year than he did last year (213.0).
- Trevor Lawrence’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 58.9% to 62.7%.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
226
Passing Yards
226
Passing Yards
