Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (-125) after it opened @ 274.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a giant 9.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (67.4%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a mere 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards
294
Passing Yards
