Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (-125) after it opened @ 274.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a giant 9.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (67.4%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a mere 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards