Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Carson WentzPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Commanders
Right now, Carson Wentz’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 226.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 64.0 plays per game.
- Carson Wentz has passed for many more yards per game (267.0) this year than he did last year (201.0).
- The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line has afforded their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Carson Wentz to attempt 34.2 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
- The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Carson Wentz has been among the least effective quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a measly 6.36 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 19th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
210
Passing Yards
210
Passing Yards
