Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 202.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Andy Dalton has been among the bottom quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging 185.0 yards per game while ranking in the 20th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year (66.2%).
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.16 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards